Analytical and Stochastic Modeling Techniques and - download pdf or read online

By Bruno Sericola, Telek Miklós, Gábor Horváth

ISBN-10: 3319082183

ISBN-13: 9783319082189

ISBN-10: 3319082191

ISBN-13: 9783319082196

This publication constitutes the refereed complaints of the twenty first overseas convention on Analytical and Stochastic Modelling strategies and functions, ASMTA 2014, held in Budapest, Hungary, in June/July 2014. The 18 papers provided have been conscientiously reviewed and chosen from 27 submissions. The papers speak about the newest advancements in analytical, numerical and simulation algorithms for stochastic structures, together with Markov approaches, queueing networks, stochastic Petri nets, strategy algebras, online game concept, etc.

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The results from this kind of analysis can give insights into epidemic forecasting and optimal strategies for managing the response to outbreaks. Much more remains to be done. For example, while the present work targets fluid limits, other scalings leading to diffusion limits may shed light on the variance of outcomes. In addition, our populations are assumed to be static when a more realistic model might assume some dynamic movement of individuals between populations (practically realised as facilities to join and leave populations).

Equations that models an increase of subpopulation are modeled with reactions. a), that models a duplication of a CSC cell, is modeled with reaction r1 that performs a self-loop on state CSC. In this case, the speed v(l)1 = Psy ωCSC corresponds to the rate of the evolution equation and we have n+ CSC,1 (l, l ) = 2. f) represents the combination of a subpopulation change (from P C1 to P C2 ) with a duplication. This is done by connecting an arc from state P C1 to reaction r3 , and one from reaction r3 to state P C2 .

5 Conclusion It is important that the sophistication of mathematical modelling techniques keeps pace with our evolving understanding of the dynamics of epidemic processes, especially as they become applied in myriad domains beyond the biological. Our present paper has made some progress in this direction by considering models of syndemic and counter-syndemic interactions between two SIR epidemics in multiple overlapping populations. The results from this kind of analysis can give insights into epidemic forecasting and optimal strategies for managing the response to outbreaks.

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Analytical and Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Applications: 21st International Conference, ASMTA 2014, Budapest, Hungary, June 30 – July 2, 2014. Proceedings by Bruno Sericola, Telek Miklós, Gábor Horváth


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